A seasonal hybrid procedure for electricity demand forecasting in China

作者：Zhu Suling; Wang Jianzhou^*; Zhao Weigang; Wang Jujie

来源：Applied Energy, 2011, 88(11): 3807-3815.

DOI：10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.005

• Optimization
• Forecasting
• Electricity demand

Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting in China remains an important problem. This paper aims at developing an improved hybrid model for electricity demand in China, which takes the advantages of moving average procedure, combined method, hybrid model and adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm, known as MA-C-WH. It is designed for making trend and seasonal adjustments which simultaneously presents the electricity demand forecasts. Four actual electricity demand time series in China power grids are selected to illustrate the proposed MA-C-WH model, and one existing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) is selected to compare with the proposed model using the same data series. The results of popular forecasting precision indexes show that our proposed model is an effective forecasting technique for seasonal time series with nonlinear trend.

• 出版日期2011-11
• 单位兰州大学