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摘要
The probability of event is usually uncertain. Considering the probability of an event occurring as grey numbers, a novel GERT model with grey probability is put forward in this paper. The solving method of model is studied, and the model is applied in rocket launch and restore problem. Some important results are calculated such as the rocket's average life, average number of launches, the probability of at least a successful launch, and the time of first successful launch. Examples demonstrated the effectiveness of the new model, the results are more realistic. This work will expand the application range of GERT model.
- 出版日期2015
- 单位南京航空航天大学
