Forecasting dissolved gases content in power transformer oil based on support vector machine with genetic algorithm

作者：Fei Sheng Wei^*; Sun Yu

来源：Electric Power Systems Research, 2008, 78(3): 507-514.

DOI：10.1016/j.epsr.2007.04.006

• forecasting of dissolved gases content
• support vector machine
• genetic algorithm
• time series

Forecasting of dissolved gases content in power transformer oil is very significant to detect incipient failures of transformer early and ensure hassle free operation of entire power system. Forecasting of dissolved gases content in power transformer oil is a complicated problem due to its nonlinearity, and the small quantity of training data. Support vector machine (SVM) has been successfully employed to solve regression problem of nonlinearity and small sample. However, SVM has rarely been applied to forecast dissolved gases content in power transformer oil. In this study, support vector machine with genetic algorithm (SVMG) is proposed to forecast dissolved gases content in power transformer oil, among which genetic algorithm (GA) is used to determine free parameters of support vector machine. The experimental data from several electric power companies in China is used to illustrate the performance of proposed SVMG model. The experimental results indicate that the proposed SVMG model can achieve greater forecasting accuracy than grey model (GM) under the circumstances of small sample. Consequently, the SVMG model is a proper alternative for forecasting dissolved gases content in power transformer oil.

• 出版日期2008-3
• 单位南京理工大学