AGING VERSUS STABLE ENDURING TRAITS AS EXPLANATORY CONSTRUCTS IN SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM Partitioning Actuarial Prediction Into Conceptually Meaningful Components

作者：Barbaree Howard E^*; Langton Calvin M; Blanchard Ray; Cantor James M

来源：Criminal Justice and Behavior, 2009, 36(5): 443-465.

DOI：10.1177/0093854809332283

• actuarial assessment
• sex offenders
• recidivism
• aging
• age at release

This study investigates whether sex offenders' age at release from custody affects their likelihood of reoffending. The participants were 468 men with a mean follow-up (time at risk) of just more than 5 years after release. Items from the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual Offense Recidivism, the Static-99, and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Test-Revised were coded. Results show that the predictive ability of items tapping antisocial behavior is inflated by their association with age at release, whereas the predictive ability of items tapping sexual deviance is diminished by that association. An assessment instrument comprising an age-corrected antisocial behavior scale, an age-corrected sexual deviance scale, and an age at release scale predicted recidivism as well as the best existing actuarial instruments. Cox regression analysis shows that age at release provided unique and significant predictive ability over and above age-corrected antisocial behavior and age-corrected sexual deviance combined.

• 出版日期2009-5