An Approach for Analyzing the Reliability of Industrial System Using Fuzzy Kolmogorov's Differential Equations

作者：Garg Harish^*

来源：Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 2015, 40(3): 975-987.

DOI：10.1007/s13369-015-1584-2

• Runge-Kutta method
• Fuzzy numbers
• Reliability
• Fuzzy Kolmogorov's differential equations
• Markov model

The main objective of this paper is to present a technique to permit the reliability analyst's or system manager for increasing the performance of the system. As traditionally, it was assumed that probabilities in Markov chain models are deterministic in nature, but as the system are growing complex and more complex these days, so the reliability data are either insufficient or mixed with uncertainty. Thus to handle these kind of issues, the nth-order fuzzy Kolmogorov's differential equations are developed by using a fuzzy Markov model of a repairable industrial system from its transition diagram and then evaluate the fuzzy reliability of the system both in transient as well as in steady state using Runge-Kutta method. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted for finding the most critical component of the system by varying the failure and repair rates of the system. Final results are compared with the existing results. To show the application of the proposed method, a case of the thermal power plant, a repairable industrial system, has been taken for evaluating the fuzzy reliability of the system.

• 出版日期2015-3