Use of formation pressure test results over a hydrate interval for long-term production forecasting at the Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope: Implications of uncertainties

作者：Pooladi Darvish Mehran^*; Hong Huifang

来源：Marine and Petroleum Geology, 2011, 28(2): 535-545.

DOI：10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2010.01.006

• Hydrate
• MDT test
• History matching
• Forecast
• Uncertainty assessment

In the first part of this paper, the pressure and temperature measurements obtained using Schlumberger's Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT) conducted on the C2 interval in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well (Mount Elbert Well) are history matched, with the following three objectives: (i) to obtain a better understanding of hydrate decomposition and its reformation as conditions cross the p/T stability, (ii) to obtain formation properties (e.g., permeability) that are consistent with the measurements, and (iii) to explore the non-uniqueness in the history match; i.e., to explore the ranges of parameters that allow a reasonable match of the measured quantities. In the second part of this paper, long-term production performance is predicted, and the effect of the uncertain parameters on the predictions is demonstrated. The results are used to demonstrate the range of long-term production that may be expected, when a model is calibrated using the MDT data. Usefulness of short-term tests for long-term forecast prediction is then discussed.

• 出版日期2011-2