A new criterion and probabilistic approach to the performance assessment of coastal facilities in relation to their adaptation to global climate change

作者：Sekimoto Tsunehiro^*; Isobe Masahiko; Anno Kouichirou; Nakajima Sayaka

来源：Ocean Engineering, 2013, 71: 113-121.

DOI：10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.01.032

• Maximum allowable wave height
• Probabilistic approach
• Coastal facilities
• Global climate change
• Sea level rise
• Encounter probability
• Modified residual life

"Maximum allowable wave height" is proposed as a new criterion for assessing the performance of coastal facilities when planning a strategy for adapting these facilities to global climate change. Since it considers the prevention of wave overtopping and the structural strength of coastal facilities such as seawalls or breakwaters as measures of performance, this new criterion can represent the reduction in performance of coastal facilities due to sea level rise or of a greater frequency of tropical cyclones induced by global climate change. This study proposes a probabilistic approach to assess the performance of coastal structures. Using this approach, the time-dependent encounter probability, the return period, and modified residual life are introduced as new indices for making decisions on adaptation strategies. A useful characteristic of these indices is that they make possible the direct comparison of different physical quantities such as wave overtopping and structural strength. Case studies were conducted in order to verify the validity of this approach. The proposed approach is considered to be beneficial in planning an adaptation strategy related to global climate change. A more accurate assessment can be made through case studies of its application.

• 出版日期2013-10-1