科研之友
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摘要
The diversity of processes involved in manufacturing and the range of commodities that are traded on the global market makes analysing climate change impacts a challenging task. A methodology for systematically evaluating the large-scale impacts of climate change on manufactured goods in the global market is presented. The effects of climate change on the security of electricity supply, the availability of transportation, and access to water are examined. The manufacturing industry has a large geographical spread and there are several ways in which climate change will probably affect the manufacturing process. Most of the potential impacts will be detrimental by the 2040s and, without effective global action to limit climate change, it is likely that they will worsen in the second half of the century. However, a large proportion of manufacturing exports is from those regions that are best positioned to adapt to a changing climate and thus minimize adverse impacts.
Policy relevance
This article takes a broad view of globally manufactured commodities and their vulnerability to climate change, to inform policy makers of the potential impacts of a changing climate on the global commodities market. The aim is to highlight key areas of concern, to focus attention on the most significant vulnerabilities, and to inform more detailed investigation of this complex issue. The analysis shows that climate change is expected to affect global commodities, but that those regions responsible for the majority of manufacture exports are also those most able to adapt to a changing climate.
- 出版日期2012
