A periodic matrix population model for monarch butterflies

作者：Hunt E; Tongen A^*

来源：Natural Resource Modeling, 2017, 30(2): e12123.

DOI：10.1111/nrm.12123

• Danaus plexippus
• mathematical model
• monarch butterfly
• periodic matrix population model

The migration pattern of the eastern monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) consists of a sequence of generations of butterflies that originate in Mexico each spring, travel as far north as Southern Canada, and ultimately return to the original location in Mexico the following fall. Estimates of monarch populations in the Oyamel firs in Mexico have caused concern within the scientific community about the long-term stability of this phenomenon. We use periodic population matrices to model the life cycle of the eastern monarch butterfly and find that, under this linear model, this migration is not currently at risk. We extend the model to address the three primary obstacles for the long-term survival of this migratory pattern: deforestation in Mexico, increased extreme weather patterns, and milkweed decline. Incorporating these obstacles into the model shows that there is a definite need to take action to alleviate the aforementioned obstacles.

• 出版日期2017-5