科研之友
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摘要
The annual electricity consumption analysis and forecasting of China is one of the important bases of management decision making for power generation groups as well as power policy adjusting for government. The socioeconomic actuality could not offer adequate observations with perfect statistic characters. The partial least squares method is applied to get a linear equation. It could quantificational simulate the relationship between the electricity consumption and its factors. The variables importance analysis method is further adopted to distinguish the explanatory power of all relative factors. The foremost importance of production and consumption in rural area shows that the development of this area should account more for the increasing of electricity consumption. The less explanatory power of the gross domestic product of tertiary industry means the gigantic potential in electricity consumption for the future several years. At last, it calculates the contributions of observations. The results show that the unusual development of real estate and relative industry has affected the usual electricity consumption mode. With the clear away of price bubble in real estate, the increasing speed of electricity consumption will slow down in the recent years.
- 出版日期2011-2
- 单位华北电力大学
