A nonlinear full-shape curve prediction after the onset of the new solar cycle 24

作者：Sello Stefano^*

来源：Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2012, 80: 252-257.

DOI：10.1016/j.jastp.2012.02.002

• Solar activity
• Sunspots
• Data analysis

We describe the various methods proposed in forecasting the structure of forthcoming solar cycles and discuss the difficulties met thereby. These difficulties are related to the highly complex nonlinear dynamical processes involved, mainly related to the interaction of different components, deterministic and stochastic ones, of the internal magnetic fields. In this paper we update the full-shape curve prediction of the new solar cycle using a nonlinear dynamics method and we compare the results with the current solar cycle predictions collected by the NOAA/SEC prediction panel. To evaluate the performances of the nonlinear method, we compared the predictions at different stages of the cycle development and we analyzed the convergence properties using both different datasets and different cycles.

• 出版日期2012-5