Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?

作者：Beechey Meredith J^*; Johannsen Benjamin K; Levin Andrew T

来源：American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics , 2011, 3(2): 104-129.

DOI：10.1257/mac.3.2.104

This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored in both economies but reveal substantially greater dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections of US inflation. Analysis of daily data on inflation swaps and nominal-indexed bond spreads, which gauge compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk, also suggests that long-run inflation expectations are more firmly anchored in the euro area than in the United States. (JEL D84, E31, E37, E52, E58)

• 出版日期2011-4
• 单位西北大学