科研之友
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摘要
In this paper, we revisit a correlation between the amplitude of a solar cycle, R-m, and the max-max solar cycle length two solar cycles before, Pmax-2, which was proposed by Du to be used as a tool for solar cycle forecasting. We vary the time interval used in the statistical analysis and also use different long-term series of sunspot numbers: International sunspot number and Group sunspot number. We show that the claimed correlation appears unstable as it depends on the time interval and the selected data series. This suggests that the relationship between the two parameters is not stationary and more complex than previously thought and, therefore, this relationship should not be used to predict solar activity.
- 出版日期2012-8
