A MODIFIED MODEL OF ELECTRONIC DEVICE RELIABILITY PREDICTION

作者：Zeng Shengkui^*; Sun Bo; Tong Chuan

来源：Maintenance and Reliability, 2009, (4): 4-9.

• reliability prediction
• model modification
• physics of failure
• electronic device
• K-S test
• random censored tests

There exist uncertainties in the prediction of electronic device reliability based on PoF (physics of failure) model. Based on the combination of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test) and Monte-Carlo simulation method this paper presents a modified method for reliability prediction of electronic devices considering limited test failure data. The process capability index (Cpk) is used to quantitatively characterize the main factors of model uncertainties. Firstly the degree of fitting between the theoretical probability distribution of electronic device failures based on PoF by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method and the practical probability distribution of electronic device failures based on test or field failure data is tested by using K-S lest method. Secondly the corrected coefficient of the model is optimized. Finally, a solder thermal fatigue life assessment model and some test failure data are used to verify the proposed method in the illustrative example. The prediction results calculated by modified model are consistent with lest results.

• 出版日期2009
• 单位北京航空航天大学