A System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Temporary Water Transfers in the Mexican Conchos Basin

作者：Gastelum Jesus R^*; Valdes Juan B; Stewart Steven

来源：Water Resources Management, 2010, 24(7): 1285-1311.

DOI：10.1007/s11269-009-9497-z

• System dynamics
• Decision support system
• Simulation
• Water allocation
• Irrigation
• Water markets
• Temporary water rights transfers
• Uncertainty analysis

The flows of the Rio Conchos are of vital economic importance not only to the agricultural sector in the Mexican side of the Rio Grande basin but also for meeting Mexico's obligation to deliver water to the United States. During the previous decade, a severe drought dramatically decreased the basin's runoff, generating serious economic, social, and political problems in both countries. A System Dynamics (SD) model designed to serve as a decision-support system (DSS) for water managers has been created. This DSS is a lumped semi-distributed model operating on a monthly basis. This DSS incorporates the most important elements of the Conchos basin's water resources system: main rivers, irrigation distribution canals, reservoirs, aquifer, and the three Irrigation Districts. The DSS simulates different short and long term scenarios combining inside and outside Irrigation Districts (IDs). Also, different short scenarios are implemented to investigate the benefits of water transfer from M,xico to the United States. This study has prompted awareness with regards to the degree of complexity and uncertainty of the water right allocation process to different economic variables such as crop yield, production costs, crop prices, subsidies, and water distribution efficiencies.

• 出版日期2010-5