Application of fuzzy regression on air cargo volume forecast

作者：Chou Tsung Yu^*; Liang Gin Shuh; Han Tzeu Chen

来源：Quality and Quantity, 2013, 47(2): 897-908.

DOI：10.1007/s11135-011-9572-4

• Air cargo
• Freight forecasting
• Fuzzy linear regression
• Index of Optimism

This paper presented a Fuzzy Regression Forecasting Model (FRFM) to forecast demand by examining present international air cargo market. Accuracy is one of the most important concerns when dealing with forecasts. However, there is one problem that is often overlooked. That is, an accurate forecast model for one does not necessarily suit the other. This is mainly due to individual's different perceptions toward their socioeconomic environment as well as their competitiveness when evaluating risk. Therefore people make divergent judgments toward various scenarios. Yet even when faced with the same challenge, distinctive responses are generated due to individual evaluations in their strengths and weaknesses. How to resolve these uncertainties and indefiniteness while accommodating individuality is the main purpose of constructing this FRFM. When forecasting air cargo volumes, uncertainty factors often cause deviation in estimations derived from traditional linear regression analysis. Aiming to enhance forecast accuracy by minimizing deviations, fuzzy regression analysis and linear regression analysis were integrated to reduce the residual resulted from these uncertain factors. The authors applied alpha-cut and Index of Optimism lambda to achieve a more flexible and persuasive future volume forecast.

• 出版日期2013-2