An Analysis of Multiple Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones Ike and Lowell: 10-15 September 2008

作者：Bosart Lance F^*; Cordeira Jason M; Galarneau Thomas J Jr; Moore Benjamin J; Archambault Heather M

来源：Monthly Weather Review, 2012, 140(4): 1081-1107.

DOI：10.1175/MWR-D-11-00163.1

An analysis of three predecessor rain events (PREs) that occurred ahead of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) Ike and east Pacific TC Lowell during 10-15 September 2008 is presented. The three PREs produced all-time daily record rainfall at many locations, including Lubbock, Texas (189.5 mm); Wichita, Kansas (262 mm); and Chicago-O%26apos;Hare, Illinois (169 mm), on 11-13 September, respectively. PRE 1 organized over Texas on 10 September with moisture from a stalled frontal boundary and the Bay of Campeche, and matured with moisture from TC Lowell. PRE 2 organized over the Texas Panhandle on 11 September with moisture from the Bay of Campeche, and developed and matured over Kansas and Missouri with moisture from TC Lowell. PRE 3 developed over Texas on 11 September, merged with and absorbed PRE 2 over Kansas and Missouri, and matured as it ingested moisture from TC Ike All three PREs matured in the equatorward entrance region of an intensifying subtropical jet stream (STJ). %26lt;br%26gt;Heavy rainfall with the three PREs occurred along a plume of moist air characterized by high precipitable water values that extended poleward over the central United States near the juxtaposition of the nose of a low-level jet, a region of lower-tropospheric forcing for ascent along a surface baroclinic zone, and the STJ equatorward entrance region. The cumulative upscale effect of persistent deep convection from the three PREs enhanced and %26quot;locked in%26quot; a favorable upper-tropospheric flow pattern conducive to ridge development over the Ohio Valley and STJ intensification over the central U.S. and Great Lakes region.

• 出版日期2012-4