Mathematical formulation and validation of the Be-FAST model for Classical Swine Fever Virus spread between and within farms

作者：Ivorra Benjamin^*; Martinez Lopez Beatriz; Sanchez Vizcaino Jose M; Ramos Angel M

来源：Annals of Operations Research, 2014, 219(1): 25-47.

DOI：10.1007/s10479-012-1257-4

• Epidemiological modeling
• Individual-Based model
• Susceptible-Infected model
• Model validation
• Classical Swine Fever

Classical Swine Fever is a viral disease of pigs that causes severe restrictions on the movement of pigs and pig products in the affected areas. The knowledge of its spread patterns and risk factors would help to implement specific measures for controlling future outbreaks. In this article, we describe in detail a spatial hybrid model, called Be-FAST, based on the combination of a stochastic Individual-Based model (modeling the interactions between the farms, considered as individuals) for between-farm spread with a Susceptible-Infected model for within-farm spread, to simulate the spread of this disease and identify risk zones in a given region. First, we focus on the mathematical formulation of each component of the model. Then, in order to validate Be-FAST, we perform various numerical experiments considering the Spanish province of Segovia. Obtained results are compared with the ones given by two other Individual-Based models and real outbreaks data from Segovia and The Netherlands.

• 出版日期2014-8