Analysis of time-dependent failure rate and probability of nuclear component

作者：Guo, Haikuan; Zhao, Xinwen; Chen, Wenzhen^*

来源：Annals of Nuclear Energy, 2018, 122: 137-145.

DOI：10.1016/j.anucene.2018.08.021

• Failure rate
• Failure probability
• Probabilistic safety assessment
• Generalized linear model
• Bayes

Reliability data of nuclear component are the input parameter and important to the nuclear power plant probabilistic safety assessment. If the failure is weariness in origin, the failure rate and probability will be not constant and have a time trend. Failure rate and probability have been proved to be increasing with time by reliability mathematics. The generalized linear model is built for Poisson and Binomial distribution and applied to study the time-dependent failure rate and probability of nuclear component. The model is proved to be reasonable by the qualitative graph and Bayesian chi-square statistic methods, which can predict the real time trend of nuclear component failure rate and probability correctly. Only analyzing the time dependent failure rate and probability of nuclear component, we will build more accurate general reliability data to analyze the uncertainty of system reliability.

• 出版日期2018-12
• 单位中国人民解放军海军工程大学