科研之友
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摘要
According to the "jacking-up" theory, which relates the cause of earthquakes to outer core convection ascension bodies, the crust will gradually recover after an earthquake. In such cases, the crust is stretched, the underground temperature is reduced, precipitation decreases, and drought occurs. In this paper, precipitation is compared with ground temperature and seismic data to determine the spatial and temporal relationship between earthquakes and subsequent droughts. Our objective is to develop a new method of drought prediction. With a few exceptions in location, the analysis of the first drought to occur after the Ms a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes in mainland China and the adjacent areas since 1950 shows that droughts tended to occur in regions near earthquake epicenters and in the eastern regions of the epicenters at the same latitude within six months after the earthquakes. In addition, and the differences between the starting time of the earthquakes and the droughts nearly share the same probability of 0 to 6 months. After careful analysis of 34 Ms a parts per thousand yen 6.5 earthquakes occurring in western China from 1980 to 2011, we determined that a second drought tends to occur approximately six months following the first drought, indicating a quasi-half-year period. Moreover, the duration of the quasi-half-year fluctuation increases with the magnitude of earthquake, at approximately 2.5 years for Ms 6.5 earthquake and approximately 5 years for Ms 8 earthquake.
- 出版日期2013-12
- 单位中国科学院; 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
