A probability-based Monte Carlo life-risk analysis model for fire emergencies

作者：Zhang Xia^*; Li Xiao; Mehaffey Jim; Hadjisophocleous George

来源：Fire Safety Journal, 2017, 89: 51-62.

DOI：10.1016/j.firesaf.2017.02.003

• Life-risk analysis model
• Probabilistic model
• Monte Carlo methods
• Fire emergencies

The paper proposes a probability-based Monte Carlo life-risk analysis model for fire emergencies. Based on the hazardous conditions in each compartment of a building and the evacuation path of each occupant, the model calculates the probabilities of injury and death determined by fractional effective doses due to heat and toxic gases, considers the probability of death due to fire spread, and produces the probabilities of injury and death for each occupant. Then these probabilities for all occupants are summed to give the total probabilities of injury and death in a Monte Carlo run, and statistics about the total probabilities of all Monte Carlo runs are produced for each fire scenario. According to the statistics and scenario composition, the expected risks of injury and death in the building are calculated. The model is applied to a life risk analysis of 6- and 12-storey apartment buildings. The results show that for these buildings, injuries and deaths are mainly limited to the rooms of fire origin and the effects of building area and the number of storeys on life risk are slight. The predictions for different layouts are in good agreement with the numbers of injuries and deaths given by Canadian and US statistics.

• 出版日期2017-4