科研之友
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摘要
The management of crisis information dissemination is vital in crisis management as an important component of the government emergency system. With the diversification of information dissemination channels and the increase of such dissemination rate, once the processes are out of control and the related government departments cannot deal with them effectively, a more disordered society and different ranges of social panics will be induced, even the derived disasters can be formed that leads to the "trust crisis" from the public to the government. Presently most of the government emergency systems and emergency plans are based mainly on the nature and characteristics of the crisis itself, while the managements and controls in crisis information are seldom concerned. In this paper, an evaluation method based on the crisis information dissemination process is provided to estimate the derivation probability of disasters from crisis events in which the factors such as the characteristics of crisis events, the dissemination rate, the attentive degrees and the dissemination durations are comprehensively considered. The grey clustering method was used to divide the process of crisis information dissemination into four levels of Grade A, (a process which can cause disasters very easily), Grade B (a process which can cause disasters easily), Grade C (a process which can cause disasters possibly) and Grade D (a process which can hardly cause disasters). The corresponding whitening weight functions (WWF) are built for variable levels. This method was validated by investigating the real dissemination processes of correlative crisis information. The accomplished plan for crisis dissemination complied based on such method can not only guide the crisis information dissemination properly but also supplement the emergency plan to deal with the crisis events themselves well and prevent the occurrences of derived disasters effectively.
- 出版日期2008
- 单位中南大学
