Analysing the risk of LNG carrier operations

作者：Vanem Erik^*; Antao Pedro; Ostvik Ivan; de Comas Francisco Del Castillo

来源：Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2008, 93(9): 1328-1344.

DOI：10.1016/j.ress.2007.07.007

• LNG carriers
• marine transportation
• risk analysis
• maritime safety
• gas tankers
• formal safety assessment
• liquefied natural gas

This paper presents a generic, high-level risk assessment of the global operation of ocean-going liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The analysis collects and combines information from several sources such as an initial hazid, a thorough review of historic LNG accidents, review of previous studies, published damage statistics and expert judgement, and develops modular risk models for critical accident scenarios. In accordance with these risk models, available information from different sources has been structured in the form of event trees for different generic accident categories. In this way, high-risk areas pertaining to LNG shipping operations have been identified. The major contributions to the risk associated with LNG shipping are found to stem from five generic accident categories, i.e. collision, grounding, contact, fire and explosion, and events occurring while loading or unloading LNG at the terminal. Of these, collision risk was found to be the highest. According to the risk analysis presented in this paper, both the individual and the societal risk level associated with LNG carrier operations lie within the As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALARP) area, meaning that further risk reduction should be required only if available cost-effective risk control options could be identified. This paper also includes a critical review of the various components of the risk models and hence identifies areas of improvements and suggests topics for further research.

• 出版日期2008-9