A stochastic model for predicting the stage emergence of Plutella xylostella under field conditions

作者：Marchioro C A^*; Krechemer F S; Moraes C P; Foerster L A

来源：Annals of Applied Biology, 2016, 169(2): 190-199.

DOI：10.1111/aab.12290

• Development rate
• diamondback moth
• model validation
• Plutellidae
• population dynamics
• temperature

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, is a worldwide pest of brassicas, and its biology and ecology have been extensively studied over recent years. Despite the importance of mathematical models to the management of insect pests, no stochastic model has been developed to date for P. xylostella. In this context, the study aimed to develop a stochastic model capable of describing the stage emergence of P. xylostella under field conditions. The stochastic model was developed using simple nonlinear functions based on the laboratory data on development times under constant temperatures. Comparison between estimated and observed cumulative proportions of egg hatch, pupation and adult emergence recorded in the field in Southern Brazil shows that the model accurately describes the stage emergence of P. xylostella. The developed model shows potential to estimate the stage emergence of P. xylostella under field conditions, and can add significant advances to the management of this pest.

• 出版日期2016-9