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摘要
Calculation of the reliability of aircraft structures requires system reliability methods to combine the results from multiple components subjected to multiple failure modes and load cases. Second-order bounds are typically the optimum method considering computational cost and accuracy. However, the second-order method due to Ditlevsen for series systems, usually considered the standard, provides results dependent upon the ordering of the components. Recent improvements in mathematical techniques warrant a review of the best system probability-of-failure bounds for use on aircraft structures. Advances in computational power have also allowed more sophisticated methods, such as linear programming, to be incorporated into the bounds calculations. While second-order Ditlevsen bounds are treated as the standard for structural systems, other techniques are presented that may provide a marked improvement in accuracy. The results indicate that a more recent second-order lower bound that is ordering independent and Ditlevsen bounds using an optimal ordering should be standard computational methods. These methods serve as an alternative to sampling methods, and direct numerical integration to estimate the system probability of failure. Structural examples are presented; however, these techniques can be used on any series systems.
- 出版日期2012-6
