A workflow for risk analysis and optimization of steam flooding scenario using static and dynamic proxy models

作者：Panjalizadeh Hamed^*; Alizadeh Nasser; Mashhadi Hadi

来源：Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 2014, 121: 78-86.

DOI：10.1016/j.petrol.2014.06.010

• Experimental design
• Proxy model
• Artificial neural network
• Polynomial regression model
• Optimization
• Genetic algorithm
• Steam flooding

Heavy oil reservoirs are full of uncertainties because of the difficulties in fluid and core sampling as well as well testing operations. Therefore, making any decision on development plan of heavy oil reservoirs under strong uncertain conditions needs risk analysis. %26lt;br%26gt;Different thermal processes like steam injection have been used for the recovery of heavy oil. Because of high steam generation costs, it is necessary to optimize the process. But both risk analysis and optimization are very time consuming and expensive tasks as they both need too many simulation runs. Creating a proxy model, which replaces the simulator and emulates simulator outputs very fast, seems to be a good solution to this problem. %26lt;br%26gt;Different static proxy models have been used to-date, which can optimize the process only at one certain time of simulation and they are not valid for other times. In this study for the first time dynamic or time dependent proxy models are used for uncertainty analysis and optimization. The term dynamic or time-dependent proxy model is a response surface of desired objective parameters, which is valid for the whole time interval of the process. %26lt;br%26gt;This study demonstrates the application of artificial intelligence for optimization of steam flooding using dynamic proxy models. A new time-dependent artificial neural network is introduced as a dynamic response surface. By coupling this response surface with genetic algorithm, optimum injection conditions such as steam injection rate, steam quality, and also optimum injection time are obtained in a no-dip layered heavy oil reservoir. The proposed workflow is a rapid and cost-effective tool for risk analysis and optimization of steam flooding in heavy oil reservoirs.

• 出版日期2014-9