Forecasting and early-warning model of port traffic resource carrying capacity

作者：Jiao Yu^*; Kang Yu Tao; Yin Xiao Bei; Wang Jin Hui; Xu Le Ping

来源：Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2012, 12(2): 84-92.

• Berth resource
• Calculation methods
• Channel resource
• Channel traffic
• Classification models
• Computing methods
• Early warning
• Fairway resource
• Queuing theory
• Southern China
• Traffic resources
• Water depth

Based on the calculation method of channel traffic capacity, the static carrying capacity model of channel resource was set up. According to the computing method of anchorage scale and basic judgment parameter, the classification model of anchorage resource carrying capacity was put forward. On the basis of queuing theory, the service strength of port berth and the carrying capacity models of channel resource and anchorage resource were fused, the comprehensive forecasting and early-warning model of port traffic resource carrying capacity was built, and example verification was carried out through case port in Southern China. Calculation result shows that by using the proposed model, channel resource carrying capacity indexes in 2008 and 2010 are 0.405 and 0.608 respectively, comprehensive anchorage resource carrying capacity indexes in 2008 and 2010 are 1.489 and 0.600 respectively, the service strength of port berth in 2008 is 0.565, and the calculation results are consistent with the fact. With the increase speed of cargo throughput, the minimum and maximum of channel resource carrying capacity indexes will be 0.593 and 0.796 respectively in 2015, and will be 0.685 and 0.944 respectively in 2020. Based on the existing anchorage resource, while water depth is below 5 m, the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity indexes will be 0.177 and 0.210 respectively in 2015 and 2020. While water depth is from 5 m to 10 m, the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity indexes will be 1.037 and 1.231 respectively in 2015 and 2020. While water depth is more than 10 m, the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity indexes will be 1.294 and 1.535 respectively in 2015 and 2020. The minimum service strengths of port berths will be 0.858 and 0.994 respectively in 2015 and 2020.

• 出版日期2012
• 单位上海海事大学