科研之友
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摘要
This study employs a recursive dynamic spatial partial equilibrium model to investigate the trade flow trends in the global softwood log market. A baseline forecast from 2012 to 2021 is first projected and then compared with three alternative scenarios: (1) Russia reduces its ad valorem softwood log export tax to 8 per cent to comply with its World Trade Organization accession agreements; (2) New Zealand experiences no expansion at all of its plantation forest log production due to social and environmental considerations (i.e. increased Maori ownership of forest land and the implementation of emissions trading schemes); and (3) a combination of the proposed policies in Russia and New Zealand mentioned above. The results of the baseline projection demonstrate that softwood log prices will increase in every region globally and that China will continue to be the world's largest softwood log importer. However, softwood log exports from Russia, the US and Canada are expected to drop significantly as a result of current Russian export restrictions, the recovery of the US housing market and mountain pine beetle infestations in western Canada. A comparison of the simulated scenarios with the baseline projection reveals that reducing the Russian softwood log export tax will have a greater impact on softwood log prices and total world trade than restricting log production in New Zealand due to the comparatively large log production capacity in Russia. In any scenario, significant trade flow changes (i.e. trade-offs) in response to the proposed policy changes are observed in China and the major export regions. The results of this study offer insights for forest managers and policy makers to examine the global impacts of potential changes in trade policies and supply constraints in these two important softwood log supply regions in addition to highlighting China's role in the world softwood log market.
- 出版日期2016-1
