A multi-paradigm approach to system dynamics modeling of intercity transportation

作者：Lewe J H; Hivin L F^*; Mavris D N

来源：Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review , 2014, 71: 188-202.

DOI：10.1016/j.tre.2014.09.011

• Complex system-of-systems simulation
• Inter-city multimodal transportation
• Aviation demand forecast
• Classification of hybrid models
• Surrogate modeling
• Discrete choice model

The complexity of the transportation system calls for a holistic solution approach that employs multiple modeling paradigms such as agent-based modeling and system dynamics. Various techniques for combining these paradigms are explored and logically classified, which helps guide hybrid modeling. A system dynamics model for multimodal intercity transportation is created, which integrates socioeconomic factors, mode performance, aggregated demand and capacity. The model is calibrated against a set of data points from an existing agent-based model. An effective inheritance of the proven predictive power of the agent-based model is demonstrated by reproducing the historic aviation demand with sufficient accuracy.

• 出版日期2014-11