科研之友
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摘要
Travel demand modeling is a key tool in transportation planning, but the practice of such modeling at metropolitan planning organizations has been widely criticized as resistant to innovation. This resistance is a major concern for transportation planners who would like to investigate policy options such as value pricing and smart growth, which are poorly considered with traditional methods. Advanced modeling methodologies are better suited for such policy analysis but, to date, attempts to systematically encourage such practices have not been successful. An emerging exception to this pattern is the experience of the state of California, whose pioneering climate change legislation has launched a multipronged challenge to the modeling status quo. This paper examines the enabling legislation, the subsequent guidance, and the implementation experience of the state's 18 metropolitan planning organizations to understand the combination of elements that are advancing modeling practice. The findings suggest that modeling can be advanced effectively when such innovations are seen as necessary for fulfilling a policy mandate. California identified travel demand modeling as essential for estimating greenhouse gas reductions of proposed land use and transportation policies. This recognition led to formal steps to overhaul and extend state modeling guidelines, dedicate funding for model development, daylight existing modeling practices, and establish a path toward implementing innovation. These steps have cultivated informal linkages among stakeholders that have proved critical to altering existing modeling practice. Although the California experiment remains ongoing, the early experience provides critical lessons for other regions seeking to use legislation to advance the practice of travel demand modeling.
- 出版日期2012
