科研之友
微信
新浪微博
Facebook
分享链接
摘要
In forecast value added analysis, the accuracy of relatively sophisticated forecasting methods is compared to that of naive 1 forecasts to see whether the extra costs and effort of implementing them are justified. In this note, we derive a ratio that indicates the upper bound of a forecasting method's accuracy relative to naive 1 forecasts when the mean squared error is used to measure one-period-ahead accuracy. The ratio is applicable when a series is stationary or when its first differences are stationary. Formulae for the ratio are presented for several exemplar time series processes.
- 出版日期2017-9
