A new nomogram score for predicting surgery-related pressure ulcers in cardiovascular surgical patients

作者：Lu, Cai-Xia; Chen, Hong-Lin; Shen, Wang-Qin; Feng, Li-Ping^*

来源：International Wound Journal, 2017, 14(1): 226-232.

DOI：10.1111/iwj.12593

• Surgery-related pressure ulcer
• Cardiovascular surgery
• Nomogram score
• Calibration
• Discrimination

The aim of this study was to build a new nomogram score for predicting surgery-related pressure ulcers (SRPU) in cardiovascular surgical patients. We performed a prospective cohort study among consecutive patients with cardiovascular surgery between January 2015 and December 2015. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyse the risk factors for SRPU. A nomogram-predicting model was built based on the logistic regression model. Then, calibration and discrimination were tested. A total of 149 patients with cardiovascular surgery were included in the study. Thirty-seven patients developed SRPUs, with an incidence rate of 24<bold></bold>8% (95%CI: 18<bold></bold>1-32<bold></bold>6%). The logistic regression model for predicting SRPU with four risk factors was Logit(P) = (1<bold></bold>861 x VDH, OR 2<bold></bold>174 x CAD, OR 1<bold></bold>747 x TAA) - 0<bold></bold>029 x weight + 0<bold></bold>005 x surgery duration + 1<bold></bold>241 x perioperative corticosteroids administration (P = 0<bold></bold>003, R-2 = 0<bold></bold>1181). The goodness-of-fit test (Pearson (2) = 150<bold></bold>69, P = 0<bold></bold>217) indicated acceptable calibration, and the C-index (0<bold></bold>725) indicated moderate discrimination. When the probability cut-off is 0<bold></bold>25 (total score 12), the nomogram model has the best sensitivity and specificity in predicting SRPU. We established a new nomogram model that can provide an individual prediction of SRPU in cardiovascular surgical patients. When the probability is more than 0<bold></bold>25 (total score 12), the cardiovascular surgery patients should be considered at high-risk.

• 出版日期2017-2
• 单位南通大学