Development, Evaluation, and Comparison of Land Use Regression Modeling Methods to Estimate Residential Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide in a Cohort Study

作者：Gillespie Jonathan; Beverland Iain J^*; Hamilton Scott; Padmanabhan Sandosh

来源：Environmental Science & Technology, 2016, 50(20): 11085-11093.

DOI：10.1021/acs.est.6b02089

We used a network of 135 NO2 passive diffusion tube sites to develop land use regression (LUR) models in a UK conurbation. Network sites were divided into four groups (3235 sites per group) and models developed using combinations of 13 groups of training sites to evaluate how the number of training sites influenced model performance and residential NO2 exposure estimates for a cohort of 13 679 participants. All models explained moderate to high variance in training and independent hold-out data (Training adj. R-2: 6289%; Hold-out R-2: 4485%). Average hold-out R-2 increased by 9.5%, while average training adj. R-2 decreased by 7.2% when the number of training groups was increased from 1 to 3. Exposure estimate precision improved with increasing number of training sites (median intralocation relative standard deviations of 19.2, 10.3, and 7.7% for 1-group, 2-group and 3-group models respectively). Independent 1-group models gave highly variable exposure estimates suggesting that variations in LUR sampling networks with relatively low numbers of sites (<= 35) may substantially alter exposure estimates. Collectively, our analyses suggest that use of more than 60 training sites has quantifiable benefits in epidemiological application of LUR models.

• 出版日期2016-10-18