A Systems Approach to the Policy-Level Risk Assessment of Exotic Animal Diseases: Network Model and Application to Classical Swine Fever

作者：Delgado Joao; Pollard Simon^*; Snary Emma; Black Edgar; Prpich George; Longhurst Phil

来源：Risk Analysis, 2013, 33(8): 1454-1472.

DOI：10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01934.x

• Analysis
• classical swine fever
• exotic animal disease
• import
• network
• risk
• system

Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus.

• 出版日期2013-8