Modeling and prediction of ultraviolet auroral oval boundaries based on IMF/solar wind and geomagnetic parameters

作者：Yang Qiu-Ju^*; Hu Ze-Jun^*; Han De-Sheng; Hu Hong-Qiao; Ma Xiao

来源：Acta Geophysica Sinica, 2016, 59(2): 426-439.

DOI：10.6038/cjg20160203

• Ultraviolet aurora
• Auroral oval boundary
• Interplanetary and geomagnetic environments
• Regression analysis

The size of the auroral oval is closely related with the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling process, the accurate prediction of which plays an important role in space weather study and forecast. In this manuscript, a total of 3805000 poleward boundary points and 1215000 equatorward boundary points are automatically identified from Polar ultraviolet images by using the fuzzy c-means clustering method. With the massive dataset, we statistically analyze the relationship between the auroral oval boundaries and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), solar wind parameters (SWP), and geomagnetic index. We construct two auroral boundary models by multivariate regression technique, which respectively used the IMF and SWP (model 1) and IMF, SWP and geomagnetic index (model 2) as the model parameters. With the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of the auroral boundaries between the model predictions and the observations being an evaluator, the proposed model is further compared with the models proposed by Carbary (2005) and Milan (2009). The experimental results show that the MADs of model 2 are 1.55 MLAT and 1.66 MLAT for poleward boundary and equatorward boundary respectively, which are superior to the boundary models of Carbary (2005) (MADs are 2.18 and 5.47 MLAT) and Milan (2009) (MADs are 1.71 and 1. 90 MLAT).

• 出版日期2016-2
• 单位陕西师范大学; 中国极地研究中心