A maximal covering location-based model for analyzing the vulnerability of landscapes to wildfires: Assessing the worst-case scenario

作者：Rashidi Eghbal^*; Medal Hugh; Gordon Jason; Grala Robert; Varner Morgan

来源：European Journal of Operational Research, 2017, 258(3): 1095-1105.

DOI：10.1016/j.ejor.2016.08.074

• OR in natural resources
• Critical infrastructure
• Wildfire management
• IP model
• Vulnerability assessment

In this research, we study the vulnerability of landscapes to wildfires based on the impact of the worst case scenario ignition locations. Using this scenario, we model wildfires that cause the largest damage to a landscape over a given time horizon. The landscape is modeled as a grid network, and the spread of wildfire is modeled using the minimum travel time model. To assess the impact of a wildfire in the worst-case scenario, we develop a mathematical programming model to optimally locate the ignition points so that the resulting wildfire results in the maximum damage. We compare the impacts of the worst-case wildfires (with optimally located ignition points) with the impacts of wildfires with randomly located ignition points on three landscape test cases clipped out from three national forests located in the western U.S. Our results indicate that the worst-case wildfires, on average, have more than twice the impact on landscapes than wildfires with randomly located ignition points.

• 出版日期2017-5-1
• 单位Virginia Tech; 美国弗吉尼亚理工大学(Virginia Tech)