Use of replicated Latin hypercube sampling to estimate sampling variance in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste

作者：Hansen Clifford W; Helton Jon C^*; Sallaberry Cedric J

来源：Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2012, 107: 139-148.

DOI：10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.006

• Latin hypercube sample
• Performance assessment
• Radioactive waste disposal
• Replicated sample
• Sensitivity analysis
• Top down coefficient of concordance
• Uncertainty analysis
• Yucca Mountain

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, used a Latin hypercube sample (LHS) of size 300 in the propagation of the epistemic uncertainty present in 392 analysis input variables. To assess the adequacy of this sample size, the 2008 YM PA was repeated with three independently generated (i.e., replicated) LHSs of size 300 from the indicated 392 input variables and their associated distributions. Comparison of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained with the three replicated LHSs showed that the three samples lead to similar results and that the use of any one of three samples would have produced the same assessment of the effects and implications of epistemic uncertainty. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained with the three LHSs were compared by (i) simple visual inspection, (ii) use of the t-distribution to provide a formal representation of sample-to-sample variability in the determination of expected values over epistemic uncertainty and other distributional quantities, and (iii) use of the top down coefficient of concordance to determine agreement with respect to the importance of individual variables indicated in sensitivity analyses performed with the replicated samples. The presented analyses established that an LHS of size 300 was adequate for the propagation and analysis of the effects and implications of epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 YM PA.

• 出版日期2012-11