科研之友
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摘要
There are a large number of low islands in the tropical Pacific region where fresh water resources are seriously limited by climate. The resource is coming under increasing pressure as populations grow and rates of development increase. This and the realisation of the possible impact of climate change have highlighted the sensitivity of island communities to the availability of water. However, to assess this sensitivity requires not only standard climatic data such as air temperature and rainfall, but also more specialised data on solar and longwave radiation. Therein lies a major problem as very little island-specific climatic data are available. The aim here is to identify data required for water balance assessments, then assemble and validate that database. It is argued that this is a crucial first step to successful modelling of the water balance of atolls. The study focuses on the vast area of the tropical Pacific bounded by latitudes 30 degrees S to 30 degrees N and longitudes 150 degrees E to 120 degrees W. ERA40 reanalysis data are identified as meeting the requirements both in terms of the number of climatic variables and length of time series. These data are compared with surface climate records of selected low islands. The results show that, although the reanalysis data do provide a reliable database for modelling the water balance of atolls, problems arise from overestimated precipitation and underestimated energy available for evapotranspiration. The significance of this is the aim of the second part of this work that aims to assess the sensitivity of water resources of atolls to climate change and variability at the regional scale.
- 出版日期2011-10
