A seafarer%26apos;s reliability assessment incorporating subjective judgements

作者：Riahi Ramin^*; Bonsall Steve; Jenkinson Ian; Wang Jin

来源：Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers - Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment , 2012, 226(M4): 313-334.

DOI：10.1177/1475090212438480

• Analytical hierarchy process
• ergonomics
• evidential reasoning algorithm
• fuzzy logic
• human reliability
• maritime safety

More than 80% of international cargo moves through seaports, making a contribution to the world economy. As a result, the performance of seafarers plays a major role in the safety of international trade and the maritime environment. This paper presents a novel approach to monitoring the performance of seafarers in terms of their conditional reliability. Unlike a traditional reliability analysis of a seafarer, this approach contains a dynamic model capable of coping with continually changing conditions that affect a seafarer%26apos;s performance. The proposed methodology enables and facilitates decision makers to assess the performance of a seafarer before his or her designation to any activities and during his or her seafaring period. To evaluate a seafarer%26apos;s reliability, a generic model is constructed and a combination of different techniques such as fuzzy logic, a fuzzy rule base, an analytical hierarchy process, evidential reasoning, a mapping process and expected utility is used. Furthermore, by changing the conditions that affect the reliability of an ideal seafarer and through calculating a value for this reliability, a benchmark is constructed. A seafarer%26apos;s reliability depends upon many variables and their dependencies; alteration of a criterion value will ultimately alter a seafarer%26apos;s reliability. In order to correct any deviation on time, a seafarer%26apos;s reliability has to be measured appropriately and regularly.

• 出版日期2012