科研之友
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摘要
Weapons stockpiles are expected to have high reliability over time, but prudence demands regular testing to detect detrimental aging effects and maintain confidence that reliability is high. We present a model, called RADAR, in which a stockpile has high initial reliability that may begin declining at any time. RADAR provides a framework for answering questions about how confidence in continued high reliability can change as a result of reduced sampling, discovery of failed units, and information about when a unit failed.
Supplemental materials (available on the Technometrics web site) provide lemmas used in the proof of Theorem 1, details of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, and additional examples.
- 出版日期2011-5
