A new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon and its application for assessment of impacts of the possible maximum storm surges in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan

作者：Shimokawa Shinya^*; Murakami Tomokazu; Iizuka Satoshi; Yoshino Jun; Yasuda Takashi

来源：Natural Hazards, 2014, 74(3): 2037-2052.

DOI：10.1007/s11069-014-1277-2

• Typhoon bogussing scheme
• Maximum potential intensity
• Storm surge
• Global warming

We developed the new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon approaching any region under any climatic conditions by using a potential vorticity inversion method. Numerical simulations with the new typhoon bogussing scheme are conducted for assessment of storm surges by possible maximum typhoons under the present-day and global warming climatic conditions in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan. The results suggest that the storm tide higher than the maximum storm tide in recorded history can occur in Ise and Tokyo Bays even for the present-day climate and the storm tide higher than the design sea level can cause severe damage to Nagoya and Tokyo megacities, in particular, airport facilities in Ise Bay for the global warming climate. These results suggest that the new typhoon bogussing scheme we developed is useful for assessment of impacts of storm surge by the possible maximum typhoons.

• 出版日期2014-12