Multi-agent simulation of adoption of alternative fuels

作者：van Vliet Oscar^*; de Vries Bert; Faaij Andre; Turkenburg Wim; Jager Wander

来源：Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment , 2010, 15(6): 326-342.

DOI：10.1016/j.trd.2010.03.006

• Agent-based modelling
• Energy transition
• Innovation diffusion
• Automotive fuels
• Biofuels

We have formalized and parameterized a model for the production of six transport fuels and six fuels blends from six feedstocks through 13 different production chains, and their adoption of by 11 distinct subpopulations of motorists. The motorists are represented by agents that use heuristics to choose a fuel on the basis of three attributes and a social feedback loop. Adoption of specific fuels is mostly driven by price differences, but other factors play a role if prices are similar. The results are not always intuitive and do not always show up immediately. We find that sustained combinations of interventions are required to bring about a transition away from petrol or diesel. Adoption of alternative fuels was most often confined to niche markets with a share of 5% or lower. Only in a single case was a complete fuel transition observed.

• 出版日期2010-8
• 单位国际应用系统分析学会(IIASA)