科研之友
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摘要
Access to electricity is a key enabler of social and economic development. However, 1.2 billion people still do not benefit from reliable electricity services. Microgrids have been proposed as a cost-effective means to accelerate access for communities located far from existing grid infrastructure. Scarcity of capital has been a barrier to both on-grid and off-grid electrification efforts and governments have sought private sector participation in an effort to close this gap. There is a lack of quantitative analysis to critically evaluate the key drivers of risk in microgrid utilities, or how different business models and technologies affect the potential for these projects to attract finance and scale up deployment. This paper introduces the Stochastic Techno-Economic Microgrid Model (STEMM), which enables assessment of the effect of technical design decisions as well as financial conditions on the financial viability of microgrid projects from an investment perspective. Using STEMM, this paper presents a risk analysis of the key uncertain variables affecting microgrid investments to both debt and equity investors using four technology scenarios as case studies in Rwanda. We find that major contributors to risk are fuel price volatility, uncertain electricity demand, and foreign exchange risk for investments in hard currency. Choice of technology strongly influences the risk profile of microgrids, with solar powered microgrids susceptible to demand uncertainty and diesel-based systems exposed to fuel price volatility. Hybrid solutions provide a middle ground with partial mitigation of both fuel price and demand risk. If electricity tariffs are linked to changes in fuel price, fuel price risk can be effectively passed to consumers.
- 出版日期2018-2
