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摘要
For impact assessment of interacting flood reservoirs in complex catchments it is required to generate hydrographs, which represent the peak processing of the flood in the entire catchment. Concerning unobserved or regulated (downriver of existing reservoirs) catchments a rainfall-runoff model - as presented in this analysis - is essential, to create these hydrographs. This paper concentrates on the question, how different recommended practices for generating hydrographs manipulate the results focusing on the precipitation sequence. A new method is developed to generate hydrographs using standardized observed rainfall sequences and method performance is discussed in comparison to common practice using synthetic precipitation sequences. Pre-analysis of flood generation and hydrographs are necessary, as realized for the example of the Sylvenstein reservoir in the alpine catchment of the river Isar on the basis of the three observed severest flood events. The observed hydrographs are compared with the hydrographs generated by the new method and those are discussed concerning peak overlap for the entire catchment.
It can be demonstrated, that the new method using standardized observed rainfall sequences is more adapted to reproduce the peak overlap in the catchment, in case of weather situations with tracking rainfall, because choked flow at the alpine mountains is considered. For similar cases it can be recommended to include the new method as a variant, in order to represent the natural process more adequate. The uncertainties of the calculation can be shown via ensembles with different runoff coefficients. During calculation it turned out, that not only rainfall sequence and preconditions are highly relevant for calibration of the rainfall-runoff model runoff coefficient (how expected) but although the method of flood routing and the roughness coefficients.
- 出版日期2017-4
