A non-deterministic economic evaluation using the Monte Carlo method for Eucalyptus spp. plantation aiming at pulp production in Southwestern Sao Paulo State, Brazil

作者：Gonzalez Luciana Ruggiero^*; Gorgens Eric Bastos; Estraviz Rodriguez Luiz Carlos

来源：Forest Sciences, 2017, 45(113): 31-38.

DOI：10.18671/scifor.v45n113.03

• Eucalyptus
• return
• Monte Carlo
• sensitivity analysis
• risk analysis
• cost-benefit analysis

This study presents a non-deterministic evaluation of clonal Eucalyptus grandis x E. urophylla plantations spaced on a 3 x 2 m grid and managed for pulp production in the Southwest of the State of Sao Paulo. A local company that operates as a forest services provider in the Municipality of Itapetininga, SP, provided data of local planting and annual maintenance costs. Probability distributions were adjusted from the data to express the variability of a group of important operational performance parameters. A Monte Carlo approach was used to simulate operational performance base on the adjusted distribution functions. Risk could be expressed as a variation observed in the values of the discounted cash flow formulas calculated to evaluate the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR). The simulation confirmed the economic viability of single cultivation of eucalyptus for pulp production in the area, showing low risk in both highly mechanized and labor intensive scenarios. Mean net present values were positive for an 8% annual interest rate, R$ 2,398.78 per hectare and R$ 2,437.45 per hectare, respectively. The mean internal rate of return reached 15.58% and 15.97% per year, respectively. The sensitivity analysis for the price of a cubic meter of wood resulted in a scenario to create situations of risk where 5% of the observations returned negative NPV and average internal rates of return lower than the 8% pa.

• 出版日期2017-3