A comprehensive analytical approach for policy analysis of system dynamics models

作者：Saleh Mohamed; Oliva Rogelio^*; Kampmann Christian Erik; Davidsen Pal I

来源：European Journal of Operational Research, 2010, 203(3): 673-683.

DOI：10.1016/j.ejor.2009.09.016

• System dynamics
• Linear model analysis
• Eigenvalue analysis
• Leverage points

Formal tools to link system dynamics model's structure to the system modes of behavior have recently become available. In this paper, we aim to expand the use of these tools to perform the model's policy analysis in a more structured and formal way than the exhaustive exploratory approaches used to date. We consider how a policy intervention (a parameter change) affects a particular behavior mode by affecting the gains of particular feedback loops as well as how it affects the presence of that mode in the variable of interest. The paper demonstrates the utility of considering both of these aspects since the analysis provides an assessment of the overall impact of a policy on a variable and explains why the impact occurs in terms of structural changes in the model. Particularly in the context of larger models, this method enables a much more efficient search for leverage policies, by ranking the influence of each model parameter without the need for multiple simulation experiments.

• 出版日期2010-6-16