Displacement prediction of Bazimen landslide with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir

作者：Li Deying; Wang Yang^*; Chen Lixia; Cao Ying

来源：Disaster Advances, 2013, 6: 185-191.

• Bazimen landslide
• the Three Gorges Reservoir
• deformation characteristics
• displacement prediction
• GM(1,1)-BP Model

The environmental geology in the Three Gorges Reservoir is changed due to the big rise and periodic fluctuation of the water level since 2003. Due to big rise and fluctuation of water level, some new landslides occurred and some existing landslides became worse. Bazimen landslide with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir was chosen to understand landslide deformation characteristics based on the monitoring data. The analysis of deformation characteristics includes displacement amount, velocity, influencing factors and failure mode. The landslide was affected by the coupling effects of water level and rainfall. The landslide seems to be characterized by creep and accumulation of strain energy. In order to predict displacement tendency, GM(1,1)-BP model considering the impact factors was proposed and the results are in contrast to the prediction results using GM(1,1) model and BP model without considering impact factors. The proposed model in the paper has higher fitting degree and higher prediction precision.

• 出版日期2013-10
• 单位中国地质大学（北京）