Embracing Complexity and Uncertainty

作者：Winkler Julie A

来源：Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 2016, 106(6): 1418-1433.

DOI：10.1080/24694452.2016.1207973

• adaptation
• assessments
• climate change
• complexity
• decision making
• uncertainty

Geographers can meaningfully and uniquely contribute to problem solving and assist vulnerable populations in making informed decisions. Contemporary environmental and social problems are complex and accompanied by uncertainty. Decisions must be made in the face of this uncertainty. In this address, geographers are encouraged to embrace, rather than minimize, complexity and uncertainty in their research and in their interactions with decision makers. Adaptation to climate change is used to illustrate the ubiquitous uncertainty surrounding problem solving and how the choice of assessment framework can overemphasize some sources of uncertainty and ignore others. A challenge is to communicate the information about complexity and uncertainty that decision makers need for robust and flexible decision making but at the same time prevent uncertainty from being equated with a lack of consensus and used as a reason for inaction. Geographers need to be open to a plurality of approaches to decision making and acknowledge uncertainty in their own research. Reframing the communication of uncertainty and the development of novel educational tools and learning materials for decision makers will facilitate decision making. Sustained engagement with decision makers, including the coproduction of knowledge, can also lead to greater consideration of complexity and uncertainty and to improved decision making. Rather than "keeping it simple," geographers should "keep it complex."

• 出版日期2016