AN ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR AGROFORESTRY ENVIRONMENT REGULATION OF DEGRADED LAND USING INTEGRATED SIMULATION AND A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MODEL - A CASE STUDY

作者：Brumec Drago^*; Rozman Crtomir; Janzekovic Marjan; Turk Jernej; Celan Stefan

来源：Sumarski List, 2013, 137(3-4): 147-161.

• Simulation model
• Multi-criteria decision analysis
• Analytical hierarchy process (AHP)
• Silvopasture
• Wild game
• Game enclosure

In this paper, we examine different scenarios for appropriate environment regulation of degraded areas with silvopastoral system establishment using integrated computer-based deterministic simulation and a multi-criteria decision model. We test the possibility for the wild game farming of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and fallow deer (Dama dama) in the game enclosure. The simulation model can simulate different scenarios for periods of 30 years and 50 years. Scenarios are further assessed with a multi-criteria decision model using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) (supported by the software tool Expert Choice (EC) 2000 (TM)). With the multi-criteria assessment, EC = 0.054 scenario for a period of 50 years is considered most appropriate for environment regulation. The scenario includes organic farming of red deer in a silvopastoral system, settlement of all four areas in the first year, and hinds intended for sale. The silvopastoral system includes the tree species Acer pseudoplatanus, Fraxinus excelsior, Prunus avium, and Alnus glutinosa, with a tree density of 248 tree/ha (62 of each tree species/ha) intended for logging after 50 years. The net present value (NPV) of this scenario at an 8.0 % annual discount rate is 280.685(sic), while the internal rate of return (IRR) slightly exceeds 10 %.

• 出版日期2013