Demand forecasting and order planning for humanitarian logistics: An empirical assessment

作者：van der Laan Erwin^*; van Dalen Jan; Rohrmoser Michael; Simpson Rob

来源：Journal of Operations Management, 2016, 45(1): 114-122.

DOI：10.1016/j.jom.2016.05.004

• Humanitarian logistics
• Demand forecasting
• Order planning
• Empirical analysis

Humanitarian aid organizations are most known for their short-term emergency relief. While getting aid items to those in need can be challenging, long-term projects provide an opportunity for demand planning supported by forecasting methods. Based on standardized consumption data of the Operational Center Amsterdam of Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF-OCA) regarding nineteen longer-term aid projects and over 2000 medical items consumed in 2013, we describe and analyze the forecasting and order planning process. We find that several internal and external factors influence forecast and order planning performance, be it indirectly through demand volatility and safety markup. Moreover, we identify opportunities for further improvement for MSF-OCA, and for humanitarian logistics organizations in general.

• 出版日期2016-7